Dear Racing Fan,
Hi my name is Ash... AKA The Secret Handicapper and I have developed a way of producing ratings for all runners and then convert those ratings into odds. When a bookie is offering significantly better odds than I've calculated for a particular horse, that's when I'll back it. You have probably already gathered it works best in handicaps.
My staking which is in the main usually 1-2 points is based on the Kelly Criteria, so the points are calculated based on the edge I've calculated for that horse, while also taking into account the probability of it happening. In practice that means big outsiders tend to be 1 point bets - even if they deliver the highest ROI - while a shorter-priced favourite is likely to be several points.
My Passion For Racing Is Paying Big Time
I was introduced to betting when spending Saturdays with my uncle, probably when I was about 12 or 13. He would let me join in on his football accumulator coupon, but we'd hardly ever win!
I got into horse racing by spending afternoons in the bookies near to the college where I did A-levels. The turning point for me was the 1998 Stewards' Cup. I was 17 and sat down with the Racing Post, spending a couple of hours going through all the runners and riders, trying to unearth the winner from the reams of information available.
I came to the conclusion that Superior Premium was the one for me. And when it romped home at 14/1 I got the bug! From then on, trying to decode handicaps and spot what the bookmakers hadn't became an obsession. An obsession that is now paying off big time!
Taking Emotion Out of The Equation
Although it's taken a long time to get this point. I make my selections quite systematically, so I'm not swayed by a hunch, or a whisper, or picking something based on whether I'm on a winning or losing run. I'm meticulous in data analysis and measuring performance, so I have a lot of faith in the approach and don't dwell on short-term results. Sometimes I won't watch races live, instead preferring to check my afternoon's results before watching replays of races. It's good to not get caught up in the rollercoaster of the day.
I’ve Made All The Mistakes So You Don’t Have To
I've certainly made mistakes on the way to becoming a profitable bettor. They include betting on ridiculous accumulators to try to hit the jackpot and diving into a system that hasn't properly been tested. But the fundamental mistake in the beginning was approaching a race with the goal of finding the winner. Now I don't look for the winner - because any runner can win the race - instead I'm looking for horses with bigger odds than their real chance of winning. That can be the favourite or rank outsider - or both. I don't mind betting on more than one horse in the same race.
What Can You Expect The Secret Handicapper?
I watch, analyse and bet on all kinds of UK racing. I've stopped betting on Irish racing, because the extra workload is too much, particularly in summer, and I find it much harder to make satisfactory profits in Ireland, probably because of the bigger fields and bookie over-rounds.
On the big international meetings (Breeders' Cup, L'Arc, Melbourne Cup, Dubai World Cup, etc) I don't tend to tip or bet seriously, but I might have a recreational flutter. Those meetings don't lend themselves well to my particular method of comparing the runners. Plus there is so much money staked on those races and so little that isn't known about the horses that it's hard to find genuine value.
At least 80 per cent of my bets are on handicap races, which is what this service focuses on. They are perfect for my selection method and handicaps can be such a puzzle that there is huge scope for the odds to be wildly wrong early on in the day.
I approach Flat, Jumps and All-Weather all slightly differently, but I bet on them all. Jumps tend to bring me the biggest profits over the year.
Here’s A Taster of Some Recent Winners
Why Have I Decided To Go Public?
When you've been making money at this for quite a while it gets harder to keep bookie accounts open, so drawing an income by helping others to take money from the bookies who don't want to take your bets any more is obviously very attractive!
The most rewarding thing is having people trusting you enough to risk their money on your advice - and then being able to justify that trust. I proofed The Secret Handicapper to a live audience on the Tipster Planet Platform for nearly 7 months to give people a fair history. In that time I smashed in over 400 points profit which I consider to be exceptional. Even at Betfair Starting Price the profits were in excess of 260 points.
The Hours Make It Worth It
I've put a lot of time in to get my analysis and selection process right. It's only really in the last few months that it has become easier to just concentrate on watching races and rating horses. I'm quite obsessive!
I also like to bet often. Even with just a small edge over the bookies, you can pile up the profit fairly quickly by exploiting that edge frequently. I prefer that than putting all my hope and funds in one or two bets a day. Even if you just pick the very best bet with the biggest edge, you can hit losing runs that affect your confidence and bankroll. I'd rather spread the risk by betting smaller amounts on a number of selections spread across the day.
I bet on almost all UK handicap races and on a normal day have at least 10 tips. It can be fewer on a quiet Sunday. All tips tend to go out all in one go, between 8am and 9.30am depending on when I'm completely happy with them.
Horse Racing Lends Itself To Big Profits
Horse racing, as far as I’m concerned, offers the biggest potential to make serious money. There are lots of races, with many variable and possible outcomes, and plenty of horses that are priced up wrongly every day.
What Do YOU Want From A Tipster?
Pro punters don't double their bank every other week, with spectacular, regular wins. A tipster who has a track record of providing steady growth should be very attractive. It might be unspectacular, but you can risk more if a tipster has consistent returns rather than rollercoaster ups and downs.
Dealing With The Enemy
If you're making money following a tipster, don't risk your account by doing other things such as matched betting, too much bonus abuse or arbing. Keeping an account with Best Odds Guaranteed in place will return you much more in the long run than taking advantage of a few things that will put you on bookie's watch list. If you also "give a bit back" by placing a few accumulators, patents, trixies, lucky 15s, etc, you look less like a hard-nosed pro. It might also help to not always back the very best price out there. I'm often forced to back a price worse than I tip because of my lack of accounts, but the profits still stack up and it probably helps holding on to the accounts I have left.
Why You Need The Secret Handicapper As Your Friend
My method is meticulously constructed and based on thousands of races of research. It has consistently returned a profit. To maximise that edge and protect bankroll, staking is also based on the Kelly Criteria principles. I'm not going to tip a 33/1 shot at 5 points each way or something daft like that, because even if that kind of win would look great on my results, no one is going to be able to get lots of money on at those kinds of prices.
My staking plan is realistic and effective, and by betting smaller amounts on a larger number of selections, you get to spread your risk and go under the radar for longer.
Are You Ready To Play?
Getting started is real simple. All you need to do now is decide on how long you would like to join me for. Membership is £48.00 a month or if you’re willing to commit for longer you can join for a quarter and pay just £96.00. This effectively gets you three months for the price of two.
Join me today using one of the buttons below...
Thanks for your time and interest in The Secret Handicapper. I look forward to welcoming you aboard very soon.
The Secret Handicapper